Economic aspects of disease monitoring with special reference to bovine paratuberculosis.

Monte Carlo simulation models were used to evaluate the feasibility and potential results of a proposed national survey of the prevalence of bovine paratuberculosis (PTB) in dairy herds in Norway. The expected herd prevalence was assumed to be 0.2% in the simulations. Infected herds were classified as detected if 1 animal was sero-positive. With a sample size of 6000 herds at least 1 truly infected herd was detected in 99% of the iterations. The low sensitivity of the ELISA test, the assumed low herd prevalence, the typical low within-herd prevalence of PTB and the small herd sizes in Norway all present problems in detection of the disease. The results showed that the ratio between false-positive herds and true positive herds detected had a median of 70:1. At the assumed herd prevalence of 0.2% and a cost/test of 70 NOK the median cost of detecting 1 infected herd was approximately 900,000 NOK. If 2 positive reactors were needed to classify a herd "infected" the median cost of detecting 1 infected herd was 5,055,000 NOK. Our results suggest that a randomized national prevalence survey would not be feasible, due to the low probability of detecting infected herds and because of the high number of false-positive reactions that would be expected.