Binge drinking trajectories from adolescence to emerging adulthood in a high-risk sample: predictors and substance abuse outcomes.

This study describes binge drinking trajectories from adolescence to emerging adulthood in 238 children of alcoholics and 208 controls. Mixture modeling identified three trajectory groups: early-heavy (early onset, high frequency), late-moderate (later onset, moderate frequency), and infrequent (early onset, low frequency). Nonbingers were defined a priori. The early-heavy group was characterized by parental alcoholism and antisociality, peer drinking, drug use, and (for boys) high levels of externalizing behavior, but low depression. The infrequent group was elevated in parent alcoholism and (for girls) adolescent depression, whereas the nonbinger and late-moderate groups showed the most favorable adolescent psychosocial variables. All 3 drinking trajectory groups raised risk for later substance abuse or dependence compared with the nonbingers, with the early-heavy group at highest risk.