A novel predictive model of outcome in de novo AML based on S-phase activity and proliferative response of blast cells to haemopoietic growth factors.

This study assesses whether the kinetic response of AML cells to HGFs might help to predict initial clinical outcome of treatment in de novo AML in association with age, FAB type and karyotype. Best subset regression analysis indicated optimal variables to develop models to predict prognosis. High S-phase in surviving cells following 7 days incubation in SFM, resistance to stimulation by G+GM-CSF and poor karyotype taken in combination correctly predicted outcome in 83% of patients. The importance of high SFM S-phase may be to indicate autonomous proliferation therefore a leukemic clone more likely to regenerate following therapy at the expense of normal haemopoiesis. Kinetic studies of AML cells may be a useful predictor of outcome in addition to other more established prognostic factors.