The expected economic impact of selected exotic diseases on the pig industry of Australia.

The authors assess the expected economic impact of three exotic diseases on the pig industry of Australia. An integrated epidemiological/economic approach was used to assess the effects of classical swine fever, Nipah virus and porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome. Scenarios involving either an epidemic event, in which the outbreaks were confined to selected regions and were eradicated, or an endemic situation, in which the diseases became established in Australia, were studied. Based only on loss of sales and disposal costs, epidemics resulted in regional losses in income of the order of AUS$10 million-AUS$30 million (16%-37%) depending on disease and region. If any of these diseases became established, opportunity losses in gross national pig income of 5%-11% per year would occur, with classical swine fever the most serious of the three diseases. Establishment of any of the diseases would lead to rapid structural change in the pig industry, with concomitant social and economic dislocation in regional Australia.