The availability of potential hosts as a determinant of feeding behaviours and malaria transmission by African mosquito populations.

A simple model for the influence of host availability on vector bloodmeal choice is applied to estimate the relative availabilities of humans, cattle and other host populations to malaria vectors in African communities, using published human blood indices and ratios of cattle to humans. Cattle were bitten < 0.01, 0.021 +/- 0.11, 1.61 +/- 0.16 and 1.61 +/- 0.46 times as often as humans by Anopheles funestus, An. gambiae sensu stricto and An. arabiensis in Segera, Tanzania, and An. gambiae sensu lato in The Gambia, respectively. No significant feeding upon host species other than cattle or humans was detected. Even though An. gambiae s.l. in The Gambia were mostly An. gambiae s.s., they were 77 times more likely to choose cattle over humans than An. gambiae s.s. in Tanzania. The model accurately predicted cattle blood indices for the An. arabiensis population in Tanzania (predicted = 0.99 +/- 0.21 x observed + 0.00 +/- 0.10; r2 = 0.66). The potential effect of increased cattle abundance upon malaria transmission intensity was simulated using fitted relative availability parameters and assuming vector emergence rate, feeding cycle length and survivorship were unaffected. The model predicted that increased cattle populations would not affect malaria transmission in Tanzania but could drastically reduce transmission in The Gambia or where An. arabiensis is the dominant vector. We define the availability of a host as the rate at which a typical individual host-seeking vector encounters and feeds upon that host in a single feeding cycle. Mathematical models based on this definition also represent promising tools for quantifying the dependence of vector longevity, feeding cycle length and dispersal upon host availability.