Spatial and temporal variance of river discharge on Okinawa (Japan): inferring the temporal impact on adjacent coral reefs.

Land-use changes and associated river discharges in coastal tropical regions present a global threat to coral reef environments. This study investigated the temporal variation in biological oxygen demand (BOD5) and suspended particulate matter (SPM) at the mouths of seven rivers on Okinawa Island (Japan) over 20 years. We report strong positive relationships between human population densities within river catchment areas and both average BOD5 concentration (r2 = 0.968; p < 0.001) and SPM (r2 = 0.659; p < 0.003) at the mouths of the rivers. At the reef adjacent to one river (Hija River, 50.2 km2 catchment area) we applied moving window analysis to assess an optimal sampling strategy for elucidating transitional boundaries in coral composition from the river mouth to a point where the effect of river discharge was minimal. The optimal window width for Okinawan rivers was five 1 m2 quadrats spaced over 5 m intervals. This sampling strategy clearly showed dissimilarity spikes in coral community composition up to 400 m from the Hija River mouth, beyond which no significant differences in coral composition were detected using analysis of similarities (ANOSIM). We developed a simple diffusion model linking the rivers' maximum discharge rate, and the average concentration of BOD5 and SPM with the spatial impact on the coral communities. The diffusion model can aid in predicting negative shifts in coral communities expected to result from detrimental land-use changes and is an important tool for monitoring coral reefs.