Role of transesophageal echocardiography in the prediction of thromboembolism in patients with chronic nonvalvular atrial fibrillation.

The purpose of this study was to determine whether parameters derived from transesophageal echocardiography (TEE) could predict thromboembolism in patients with chronic nonvalvular atrial fibrillation (AF). Eighty-nine patients, mean age 66+/-9 years, who underwent TEE in 1996 to 1999 were studied. The clinical endpoint was a thromboembolic event, including transient ischemic attack (TIA). Sixty-seven patients (75%) were anticoagulated with warfarin after TEE. After a follow-up period of 29+/-10 months, 1 patient died suddenly, 4 had a thromboembolism, and 3 had a TIA; the annual embolic event rate was 3.3%. Left atrial appendage (LAA) thrombus (86% vs 17%, p<0.001), LAA dysfunction (LAA velocity <20 cm/s; 71% vs 25%, p=0.009), and severe LA spontaneous echo contrast (29% vs 2%, p=0.002) were more prevalent in patients with an embolic event than in those without. In patients with LAA thrombus, the annual event rate was 11% as compared with 1.2% in those without (p=0.004). On the Cox proportional hazards model analysis, LAA thrombus (chi-square 7.0, p=0.008), severe LA spontaneous echo contrast (chi-square 7.0, p=0.008), and LAA dysfunction (chi-square 5.9, p=0.015) were significantly related to thromboembolism. Multivariate analysis revealed that LAA thrombus (chi-square 5.5, p=0.019) and LAA dysfunction (chi-square 4.0, p=0.045) were the independent predictors. In conclusion, TEE parameters, particularly the presence of LAA thrombus, can be used to assess thromboembolic potential in patients with chronic nonvalvular AF.