The recent rise in Palestinian fertility: permanent or transient?

The purpose of this paper is to describe trends in fertility and fertility change in the West Bank and Gaza Strip during the years 1968-1992, with a particular focus on the recent rise in fertility. The paper is based primarily on vital registration data. The findings show that the fertility transition has been well underway in the West Bank since 1985, with a lull during the Intifada period. No indication of a fertility transition in the Gaza Strip was found. An examination of the age pattern of fertility reveals that Palestinian fertility has been increasingly shifting toward younger ages, with a particular concentration in the age group 15-24 during the Intifada period. A decomposition analysis of the fertility rates shows that the recent rise in fertility is essentially due to changes in marital structure, but also to increased fertility within marriage among younger women. No evidence of increased fertility among older women is found. Some implications of the findings are discussed.