Efficacy of cholesterol levels and ratios in predicting future coronary heart disease in a Chinese population.

In this study, we assessed the efficacy of various lipid and lipoprotein measurements at baseline for predicting the risk for coronary heart disease (CHD) and determined the associated risk of CHD in subgroups stratified by different lipid and lipoprotein screening strategies to evaluate the adequacy of current total and low-density lipoprotein (LDL) cholesterol-based approaches in lipid management. We analyzed data from the Chin-Shan Community Cardiovascular Cohort study, a Chinese population-based prospective cohort study that began in 1990. During an 8-year follow-up period, 213 of 3,159 participants (6.7%) without CHD (aged > or =35 years) developed CHD. The total cholesterol/high-density lipoprotein (HDL) cholesterol ratio was the most powerful lipoprotein predictor of future CHD (hazard ratio 1.21 for a 1.0 increment in ratio; p <0.001). Subjects with "high-risk" LDL cholesterol levels (>160 mg/dl) and low total cholesterol/HDL cholesterol ratios (< or =5) had an incidence of CHD similar to those with low levels of both LDL cholesterol (< or =130 mg/dl) and total cholesterol/HDL cholesterol ratios (4.9% vs 4.6%). In contrast, subjects with "low-risk" LDL cholesterol levels (< or =130 mg/dl) and high total cholesterol/HDL cholesterol ratios (>5) had a 2.5-fold higher incidence of CHD than those with similar LDL cholesterol levels but low total cholesterol/HDL cholesterol ratios (p <0.001). Compared with using an LDL cholesterol level of 130 mg/dl as the cut-off point, using a total cholesterol/HDL cholesterol ratio of 5 was associated with superior specificity (73% vs 59%, p <0.001) and accuracy (72% vs 58%, p <0.001), and similar sensitivity (50% vs 53%). Our data indicate that current guidelines for lipid management may misclassify subjects with high levels of HDL and LDL cholesterol as well as those with low levels of HDL and LDL cholesterol. Using the ratio of total to HDL cholesterol as the initial screening tool can obviate this discrepancy.