Impact of screening on incidence and mortality of prostate cancer in the United States.

The potential confounding influence of changing treatment patterns and misattribution bias make a definitive conclusion about the link between PSA screening and mortality rates tentative at best. At least some of the mortality decline since 1991 appears likely to be due to screening, but the precise magnitude of the screening effect is difficult to estimate. The possible reduction in mortality due to screening, while uncertain, must be weighed against the substantial decrements in treatment-specific health outcomes (32-34) among men treated for clinically localized tumors typically detected by screening. Population data and ongoing screening trials in the United States and Europe (24, 35) will be complementary in the final determination of the relative contribution of the impact of screening versus other causes on recent mortality trends.