Predicting progression in IgA nephropathy.

Immunoglobulin A (IgA) nephropathy is one of the most common primary types of glomerulonephritis to progress to end-stage renal disease. Its variable and often long natural history makes it difficult to predict outcome. We investigated the association of the rate of renal function decline based on the slope of creatinine clearance over time with demographic, clinical, laboratory, and histological data from 298 patients with biopsy-proven IgA nephropathy with a mean follow-up of 70 months. Using univariate analysis, urinary protein excretion at baseline and Lee pathological grading, as well as mean arterial pressure (MAP) and urinary protein excretion during follow-up, were associated with the rate of deterioration in renal function. Of these, only MAP and urinary protein excretion during follow-up were identified as independent factors by multiple linear regression analysis. The combination of best accuracy of prediction and shortest observation time using these two parameters was reached between the second and third years of follow-up. A semiquantitative method of estimating the rate of progression by using these factors was developed. These results indicate that MAP and severity of proteinuria over time are the most important prognostic indicators of IgA nephropathy. The potential relevance of the algorithm in patient management is shown.