Probabilistic model for fluences and peak fluxes of solar energetic particles.

The model is intended for calculating the probability for solar energetic particles (SEP), i.e., protons and Z=2-28 ions, to have an effect on hardware and on biological and other objects in the space. The model describes the probability for the > or = 10 MeV/nucleon SEP fluences and peak fluxes to occur in the near-Earth space beyond the Earth magnetosphere under varying solar activity. The physical prerequisites of the model are as follows. 1. The occurrence of SEP is a probabilistic process. 2. The mean SEP occurrence frequency is a power-law function of solar activity (sunspot number). 3. The SEP size (taken to be the > or = 30 MeV proton fluence size) distribution is a power-law function within a 10(5)-10(11) proton/cm2 range. 4. The SEP event particle energy spectra are described by a common function whose parameters are distributed log-normally. 5. The SEP mean composition is energy-dependent and suffers fluctuations described by log-normal functions in separate events.