Tracking of cardiovascular risk factors: the Tromsø study, 1979-1995.

Tracking of cardiovascular risk factors (blood pressure, body mass index (BMI), and serum lipids) has not been studied much in a general, adult population. No known study has compared tracking of these factors for both sexes. In the present study, 17,710 men and women aged 20-61 years at baseline attended two or three population-based health surveys in Tromsø, Norway, over 16 years (between 1979-1980 and 1994-1995). Tracking coefficients were estimated by using different methods, and possible predictors of tracking were found. There was a high degree of tracking for BMI (overall tracking coefficients: 0.85 for men, 0.80 for women). Relatively high (or moderate) tracking was found for systolic blood pressure (respective sex-specific coefficients: 0.52, 0.54), diastolic blood pressure (0.48, 0.48), high density lipoprotein cholesterol (0.55, 0.64), and total cholesterol (0.77, 0.65). The lowest coefficients were for triglycerides (0.43, 0.39). Analysis of tracking in the upper sextile confirmed these results. Although some baseline predictors were associated with tracking, the effects were relatively weak. When predictors for tracking in the upper sextile were assessed, significant associations were found with relatively strong effects. No major sex differences were observed in tracking. However, women were more likely than men to remain in the upper sextile of systolic and diastolic blood pressures and of BMI.