[Eradication of paratuberculosis in dairy herds: determination of the initial herd prevalence and modelling of prevalence development].

A prerequisite for the success of any eradication programme is the accurate determination of the initial herd prevalence as well as a herd-specific prediction of prevalence development. This prerequisite is not currently given for the eradication of paratuberculosis in infected herds. In the work presented a method to predict the initial paratuberculosis prevalence in infected herds is presented; it is based on the formation of two groups (ELISA-positive and negative) and the determination of generally applicable factors (positive predictive value [ppvn] of the ELISA and sensitivity of fecal culture in the ELISA-negative group [senF]). The ppvn of the ELISA was determined to be 0.6 based on the cultural examination of the ileocaecal lymph node of 64 ELISA-positive animals; the value for senF was set to be 0.64 based on the cultural examination of feces and ileocaecal lymph nodes of 40 ELISA-negative animals. To calculate the initial herd prevalence the number of animals in each of the groups was multiplied with the ppvn of the ELISA or with the reciprocal value of senF (1.5). The values were added and divided by the size of the herd. The practicability of this model was examined on nine herds with a total of 708 animals. The development of herd prevalence was modelled based on the examination scheme given in the paratuberculosis control programme of the "Niedersächsische Tierseuchenkasse" (local board for infectious disease control in food animals in the state of Lower Saxony, Germany). For the calculation a yearly turnover-rate of 33% with restocking from within the herd and a possibility of paratuberculosis diagnosis only in animals two years and older were assumed. The development of herd prevalence is exemplarily presented for four herds with different initial prevalences.