Area under the viraemia curve versus absolute viral load: utility for predicting symptomatic cytomegalovirus infections in kidney transplant patients.

A novel approach to predicting symptomatic cytomegalovirus (CMV) infections combines the level and the duration of viraemia in a single parameter. Sixty-four kidney transplant recipients were monitored by quantitative shell vial culture, pp65 antigenaemia, and polymerase chain reaction (PCR) of leucocytes. The area under the curve (AUC) of each parameter was determined from the onset of viraemia to the beginning of antiviral treatment. The AUC values were significantly higher in symptomatic than in asymptomatic patients. For antigenaemia and PCR, optimal AUC thresholds for predicting symptomatic CMV infections were determined. They were superior to standard cutoff levels of absolute viral load in sensitivity, specificity, and positive and negative predictive value. In 8 of the 23 patients who became symptomatic, impending clinical features were indicated earlier by the AUC thresholds than by standard viral load. In conclusion, the concept of the AUC should facilitate identification of patients at risk of symptomatic CMV infection. Copyright 2001 Wiley-Liss, Inc.