[Multiperspective estimates on the probability of patient return to work following orthopaedic rehabilitation: findings and predictive relevance].

This article analyses various methods of predicting whether patients in orthopaedic rehabilitation will return to work. In this regard, items of patients, physicians in charge of rehabilitation and general practitioners have been collected and compared to working time lost due to illness. In total, 72 % of patients had successfully returned to work after one year. The patients whose reintegration could not be achieved could be identified best by asking if they believed that they would be in a position to work until the statutory retirement age (96 % identified) on the one hand and on the other hand by the physicians' estimate as to the degree the last gainful activity might be resumed (90 % identified). In this context, the criteria have to be laid down very restrictively in order to sufficiently filter out patients not likely to return to work. The patients likely to return to work are identified best by means of the following characteristics: lack of intention to retire early (96 % identified), planning to return to work directly after rehabilitation (88 % identified), and little working time lost due to illness prior to rehab (86 % identified). In general, a major percentage of patients not likely to return to work can be identified by these statements of patients and physicians. The statements of general practitioners are clearly less valuable for prediction and show only weak correlation with the respective statements of the physicians in charge of rehabilitation.