Prognosis of Alzheimer's disease: the Rotterdam Study.

The aim of this study was to construct a prognostic model to predict the progression of Alzheimer's disease (AD). Prevalent and incident cases with AD came from the Rotterdam Study, a population-based prospective cohort study of persons aged 55 years and older, including those living in institutions. Rate of cognitive decline, as measured by the Mini Mental State Examination (MMSE score), was predicted by a random effects model. Risk of institutionalization and death were estimated with polytomous logistic regression analysis. At baseline, 306 subjects were diagnosed with prevalent AD and had complete data on living conditions and cognitive function. After a mean follow-up of 2.1 years, 95 subjects with incident AD had been diagnosed. Prevalent patients showed a slower decline in cognitive function than incident patients (p = 0.004). For prevalent and incident AD patients, high age and low cognitive performance were the strongest predictors for institutionalization and death. These prognostic risk functions can provide information on the decline of Alzheimer patients and might be used to better evaluate the effect of treatments for AD. Copyright 2001 S. Karger AG, Basel