The application of decision analysis to the surgical treatment of early osteoarthritis of the wrist.

Osteoarthritis of the wrist is a complication of a number of common traumatic conditions. Arthrodesis of the radiocarpal joint, proximal row carpectomy and excision of the scaphoid, combined with midcarpal arthrodesis, have all been reported as surgical options. There have been no randomised studies comparing these procedures, and the feasibility of conducting this type of trial is limited. We used decision analysis to compare the three surgical techniques. The variables for the model used were based principally on data from the literature. Extensive sensitivity analyses were carried out to test the impact of the values given to these variables on the outcome of the model. The model indicated that the preferred treatment is proximal row carpectomy. Decision analysis allows a comparison between alternative treatments, when evidence from a randomised trial is lacking or unobtainable. The decision-analysis model may also provide insight into aspects of a problem which would be difficult, or impossible, to evaluate by a cohort study.