The potential demand for an AIDS vaccine in Thailand.

The recent ongoing phase III clinical trial of a preventive vaccine in Thailand has prompted studies on potential demand for the vaccine among public, employers and households. This study aims to demonstrate the impact of HIV/AIDS, estimate the AIDS vaccine budget required and design the vaccination strategies for different population groups. The analysis is based on available secondary data and several assumptions on levels of secondary infections among various risk groups. Among 15 groups, we identified eight groups as potential vaccinees: Direct CSW, IDU in treatment, IDU out of treatment, male STD, transport workers, CSW indirect, conscripts and prisoners. The vaccine budget, excluding other operating expenditure, was estimated based on a single dose regimen ranging from 100 Baht (3 US dollars) to 1000 Baht (29 US dollars) per dose. A total of 1.8-17.7 million US dollars is required for non-infected catch-up population and 0.2-1.9 million US dollars for the maintenance population in the subsequent year. We foresee a relative inefficient and inequitable consumption of AIDS vaccine, which requires proper policy analysis and government interventions. Before vaccine adoption, strong preventive measures must be in place. AIDS vaccine could play an additional, not a substituting, role. A thorough understanding, a wide consultation with stakeholders and public debates are crucial steps for sound policy formulation.