Thermal balance and survival time prediction of man in cold water.

Metabolic rates and rectal temperatures were continuously monitored for humans immersed in cold ocean water (4.6--18.2 degrees C) under stimulated accident conditions. The subjects wore only light clothing and a kapok lifejacket while either holding-still or swimming. While holding-still, metabolic heat production (Hm,kcal-min--1) was inversely related to water temperature (Tw, degrees C) according to the equation Hm equals 4.19 minus-0.117 Tw. This temperature response pattern is shown to be similar to that for exposure to air of the same temperature when air velocity is just over 5 m.p.h. (2.24 m/s). The thermogenic response was one-third efficient in balancing the calculated heat loss in cold water, resulting in hypothermia at a rectal temperature cooling rate (C, degrees C-min--1) dependent on water temperature (Tw, degrees C) according to the relation C equal 0.0785 - 0.0034Tw. Although swimming increased heat production to 2.5 times that of holding-still at 10.5 degrees C water temperature, cooling rate was 35% greater while swimming. A prediction equation for survival time (ts, min) of persons accidentally immersed in cold water (Tw, degrees C) has the form ts equal 15 + 7.2/(0.0785-0.0034Tw), based on the findings of this study, and it is compared to pre-existing models.