Predicting effects of toxic chemicals in the marine environment.

Ecological risks are typically characterized in risk assessment procedures by considering the ratio between exposure concentrations and critical effect concentrations. In OECD countries, critical effect concentrations are typically derived from laboratory-based ecotoxicity tests using well-defined protocols on a limited number of species. More and more countries in the tropics are adopting this approach in environmental assessment, protection, and management. In this article we consider a number of issues associated with such an approach, and in particular potential problems with extrapolating effects on individuals observed in laboratory-based ecotoxicological investigations to effects on ecosystems. It is hoped that by making explicit some of the assumptions made in the potential limitations of these tests, we can better target our limited resources to protect valuable and vulnerable systems.