Geographic information systems as a tool for control program management for schistosomiasis in Egypt.

During a 4-year study a geographic information system (GIS) risk model was constructed for predicting the relative risk of schistosomiasis in Kafr El-Sheikh governorate, Egypt. A 1-year 1990-1991 time series on diurnal temperature difference (dT) prepared from the advanced very high resolution radiometer (AVHRR) sensor on the NOAA-11 satellite was used to develop a regional risk model for the Nile delta based on thermal-hydrological domains. A May 15, 1990 Landsat TM scene (path 177, Row 38) was used to develop a local 'village-scale' environmental risk model based on higher resolution satellite sensor data (30 m picture element size at earth surface). Four of ten classes derived from a tasseled cap (Tcap) transformation of the Landsat TM scene were shown to be significantly related to a 5-year Schistosoma mansoni prevalence database from the Ministry of Health. A risk model was developed based on dT and the proportional area of the four Tcap classes in 5 km(2) buffer zones centered on rural health unit (RHU) reporting units. Available historical data on S. mansoni and its snail host Biomphalaria alexandrina, as well as recent field collected data were gathered and incorporated as separate themes. Model validation was done using data collected on snail population bionomics-infection rates, water quality, underground water table and cercariometry at 13 hydrologically representative sites. The role of soil type, water table and water quality was studied at 79 of 154 rural health unit sites. The model permitted retrieval of relevant data by RHU point location. For the first time in Egypt, the Kafr El-Sheikh GIS schistosoma prediction model can support MOH efforts to make more accurate control program decisions based on environmental predilection sites of endemic Schistosomiasis mansoni.