A nine-year prospective study on the incidence of childhood type 1 diabetes mellitus in China.

To investigate the epidemiological characteristics of childhood type 1 diabetes mellitus in China, newly diagnosed cases of type 1 diabetes with an onset age under 15 years were retrospectively registered by 23 local centers in China following a standardized protocol on the basis of the nationwide registry established by the WHO DiaMond Project China Participating Center, Chinese Academy of Preventive Medicine (CAPM). A population of about 24 million children were covered in the defined areas. A two-sample capture-recapture method was used to estimate case ascertainment. Between 1988 and 1996, 903 diabetic cases were registered in 9 ethnic groups. The overall ascertainment corrected incidence rate (IR) was 0.59 per 100,000 person-year. The IR was 0.52/100,000 (95% CI: 0.50-0.54) for males and 0.66/100,000 (95% CI: 0.64-0.68) for females. The standardized ascertainment corrected IR by the national age-specific population in 1990 was 0.57 per 100,000 person-year. The incidence among various ethnic groups ranged from 0.25/100,000 to 3. 06/100,000. The IRs increased with northern latitude, and the IR of Han population was significantly higher in North China compared with South China (0.67 versus 0.53 per 100,000 respectively, P < 0.01). A correlation model of incidence and calendar time showed that the IR increased significantly between 1988 and 1996 (r = 0.86, P = 0.0027). The relative risk (RR) of type 1 diabetes mellitus for different age-groups estimated by a Poisson regression model showed that taking RR as 1.00 for age-group from 0 to 4 years, the RR for age-group from 5 to 9 year and from 10 to 14 year was 2.30 and 3.60 respectively. The standardized ascertainment corrected IR of childhood type 1 diabetes mellitus in China in much lower than in other countries. The geographic and ethnic variability of the incidence suggests that both genetic and environmental factors play a role in the development of childhood diabetes in China.