A mathematical model of a shallow and eutrophic lake (the Keszthely Basin, Lake Balaton) and simulation of restorative manipulations.

Concern about the overall management of lakes has been growing, and a lake ecological model provides the guidelines necessary for such management. In this study, an ecological model describing the ecosystem of the Keszthely Basin, Lake Balaton, Hungary, one of the typical shallow and eutrophic lakes, was proposed. This model includes three types of zooplankton and two types of fish as well as two types of algae and nutrients. Parameters concerning the algae and fish were estimated based on observations in the basin between 1991 and 1995. The other parameters and the structure of the model were determined by our previous study. The parameters of the model were calibrated with the Monte Carlo technique, and its predictability was confirmed. The effects on the basin's ecosystem of three restorative manipulations, namely a biomanipulation, reduction of loading phosphorus, and dredging the sediment, were assessed by simulation studies using the proposed model. The simulation results indicated that a biomanipulation that removed 90% of the bream should suppress the growth of algae temporarily through bottom-up regulation; however, this effect seemed to not be perpetuated in this basin. The reduction of loading phosphorus seemed to be the most effective means to suppress algal growth, while dredging of sediment seemed to be the most desirable restoration method from the standpoint of the overall management of the lake, because it was expected to accelerate the growth of fish population as well as to suppress algal growth. Furthermore, the algal growth suppression mechanism of the dredging was discussed on the basis of the model calculations.