The role of changes in contraceptive use in the decline of induced abortion in Turkey.

The induced abortion rate in Turkey declined from a peak of 4.5 abortions per 100 women in 1988 to 2.4 in 1998. This study examines the extent to which the decline in abortion in Turkey can be attributed to increased use of modern contraceptives. Trends in induced abortion rates and in contraceptive use are examined among Turkish women together with fertility preferences, changes in the contraceptive behavior associated with abortion, and changes in the propensity to abort unwanted pregnancies. The analysis includes a number of simulations that examine what abortion levels might be in different contraceptive-use scenarios. Results indicate that the decline in abortion is due to a decrease in the number of abortions associated with traditional method failure. This decrease is related to three factors: a shift from traditional method use to modern method use, a decline in the traditional method failure rate, and a decline in the proportion of pregnancies resulting from traditional method failures that are aborted.