Methods for estimating the AIDS incubation time distribution when date of seroconversion is censored.

In most cohort studies on HIV infection and AIDS, data on time from seroconversion to AIDS or death are doubly censored, both at the time origin and at the endpoint of interest. In epidemiological research, the most frequently adopted approach is to restrict the analysis to persons with narrow seroconversion intervals and to impute the midpoint of this interval as date of seroconversion. For many cohort studies, the consequence is that a substantial proportion of the data is not used. We consider four methods that are expected to be less biased when all cohort data are used: two imputation methods, conditional mean and multiple imputation, and two likelihood maximization methods. We derive the likelihood structure of the cohort data and clarify its dependence on study design. All methods are applied to data from the Amsterdam cohort study among injection drug users. In a simulation study the data generation process of this cohort study is imitated. The performance of midpoint, conditional mean and multiple imputation are compared. With midpoint imputation, both an analysis using the full data set, as well as one restricted to the cases with small seroconversion intervals, is performed. Conditional mean imputation comes out as the preferred method. It gives best results with respect to mean squared error. Moreover, when confidence intervals are computed through standard methods that ignore the uncertainty in the imputed date of seroconversion, coverage probabilities are almost correct. Copyright 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.