A Rogers1, J Raymer. 1. Population Program, Institute of Behavioral Science, University of Colorado, Boulder 80309-0484, USA. andrei.rogers@colorado.edu
Abstract
OBJECTIVES: This research examined the impacts of past international and interregional migration flows on regional elderly population growth and distribution patterns. METHODS: The authors used 1960, 1970, 1980, and 1990 Census data and multiregional demographic models to analyze changes in the sources of regional elderly population growth rates, age compositions, and spatial distributions over time. RESULTS: Past elderly interregional migration patterns have exhibited considerable stability and have contributed less than aging-in-place in shaping regional elderly population geographies. Also the effects of immigration on elderly dependency ratios have been very modest. DISCUSSION: Little evidence exists of any significant breaks with past trends in internal elderly migration patterns. Reconstruction of elderly population changes between 1950 and 1990 reveals that the driving force behind the changes was net aging-in-place and not net migration. Finally, analysis of the possible population rejuvenating effects of immigration suggests that although its impact has contributed to lower elderly-to-worker dependency ratios, its level over the past decades has been insufficient to counteract the much stronger countervailing impact of population aging.
OBJECTIVES: This research examined the impacts of past international and interregional migration flows on regional elderly population growth and distribution patterns. METHODS: The authors used 1960, 1970, 1980, and 1990 Census data and multiregional demographic models to analyze changes in the sources of regional elderly population growth rates, age compositions, and spatial distributions over time. RESULTS: Past elderly interregional migration patterns have exhibited considerable stability and have contributed less than aging-in-place in shaping regional elderly population geographies. Also the effects of immigration on elderly dependency ratios have been very modest. DISCUSSION: Little evidence exists of any significant breaks with past trends in internal elderly migration patterns. Reconstruction of elderly population changes between 1950 and 1990 reveals that the driving force behind the changes was net aging-in-place and not net migration. Finally, analysis of the possible population rejuvenating effects of immigration suggests that although its impact has contributed to lower elderly-to-worker dependency ratios, its level over the past decades has been insufficient to counteract the much stronger countervailing impact of population aging.