Evaluating hypotheses on the origin and evolution of the New Zealand alpine cicadas (Maoricicada) using multiple-comparison tests of tree topology.

The statistical testing of alternative phylogenetic trees is central to evaluating competing evolutionary hypotheses. Fleming proposed that the New Zealand cicada species Maoricicada iolanthe is the sister species to the major radiation of both low-altitude and montane Maoricicada species. However, using 1,520 bp of mitochondrial DNA sequence data from the cytochrome oxidase subunit I, tRNA aspartic acid, and the ATPase subunit 6 and 8 genes, we inferred that both M. iolanthe and another low-altitude species, Maoricicada campbelli, are nested within the montane Maoricicada radiation. Therefore, we examined the stability of the inferred phylogenetic placement of these two species using the newly developed Shimodaira-Hasegawa test (SH test) implemented in a maximum-likelihood framework. The SH test has two advantages over the more commonly used Kishino-Hasegawa (KH) and Templeton tests. First, the SH test simultaneously compares multiple topologies and corrects the corresponding P: values to accommodate the multiplicity of testing. Second, the SH test is correct when applied to a posteriori hypotheses, unlike the KH test, because it readjusts the expectation of the null hypothesis (that two trees are not different) accordingly. The comparison of P: values estimated under the assumptions of both the KH test and the SH test clearly demonstrate that the KH test has the potential to be misleading when the issue of comparing of a posteriori hypotheses is ignored and when multiple comparisons are not taken into account. The SH test, in combination with a variety of character-weighting schemes applied to our data, reveals a surprising amount of ambiguity in the phylogenetic placement of M. iolanthe and M. campbelli.