Probability of coronary artery disease among patients attending primary health care centers (PHCCs) in Southwest Saudi Arabia.

In order to predict the magnitude of coronary artery disease (CAD) among Saudi patients attending the primary health care centers (PHCCs), the probability of coronary artery disease (PCAD) was estimated for 696 subjects (50.4% males and 49.5% females), aged 30-70 years, by a computer model based on the Framingham Heart Study. The results indicated a high percentage of CAD risk factors, namely: hypercholesterolemia (31%); diabetes mellitus (30%); hypertension (13.8%); family history of CAD (6%); and obesity (45%). The estimated PCAD rates within 5, 10 and 12 years were 4.31%, 9.88%, and 12.25%, respectively. PCAD was significantly higher among males (P=.0001) and those with two or more CAD risk factors (P=.0001). A repeated measure analysis showed that there was a consistent relation between the overall PCAD rates at 5, 10 and 12 years, and a relationship between PCAD rates and other risk factors (eg, males had a higher risk of CAD than females). Likewise, individuals with two or more risk factors had a higher PCAD. The present study predicts an incremental scale of developing CAD in the Saudi population, which may lead to an upward trend on CAD mortality similar to that of the WHO MONICA populations of most countries in 1950 and early 1960s. The concept of preventive cardiology aiming at decreasing the prevalence of CAD risk factors should be implemented in all regions of Saudi Arabia in order to avoid the predicted upward trend of CAD mortality and to get a favorable decline of CAD risk factors and mortality similar to that in the United States and Australia.