Femoral bone mineral density, neck-shaft angle and mean femoral neck width as predictors of hip fracture in men and women. Multicenter Project for Research in Osteoporosis.

The effect of femoral bone mineral density (BMD) and several parameters of femoral neck geometry (hip axis length, neck-shaft angle and mean femoral neck width) on hip fracture risk in a Spanish population was assessed in a cross-sectional study. All parameters were determined by dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry. There were 411 patients (116 men, 295 women; aged 60-90 years) with hip fractures in whom measurements were taken in the contralateral hip. Controls were 545 persons (235 men, 310 women; aged 60-90 years) who participated in a previous study on BMD in a healthy Spanish population. Femoral neck BMD was significantly lower, and neck-shaft angle and mean femoral neck width significantly higher, in fracture cases than in controls. The logistic regression analysis adjusted by age, height and weight showed that a decrease of 1 standard deviation (SD) in femoral neck BMD was associated with an odds ratio of hip fracture of 4.52 [95% confidence interval (CI) 2.93 to 6.96] in men and 4.45 (95% CI 3.11 to 6.36) in women; an increase of 1 SD in neck-shaft angle of 2.45 (95% CI 1.73 to 3.45) in men and 3.48 (95% CI 2.61 to 4.65) in women; and an increase of 1 SD in mean femoral neck width of 2.15 (95% CI 1.55 to 2.98) in men and 2.40 (95% CI 1.79 to 3.22) in women. The use of a combination of femoral BMD and geometric parameters of the femoral neck except for hip axis length may improve hip fracture risk prediction allowing a better therapeutic strategy for hip fracture prevention.