Modeling the HIV/AIDS epidemic via survivor functions.

An original approach to simulation modeling of the HIV/AIDS epidemic is proposed. This approach uses survivor functions estimated from cohort studies conducted with seropositive and AIDS-diagnosed individuals. The model can be considered an alternative to the usual Markov models and accounts for time-dependent HIV progression to AIDS, and AIDS progression to death. By using various forms of survivor functions, it can also easily be extended to accommodate natural history events, as well as long-term survivors and cofactor effects, when appropriate data are available.