BACKGROUND: A 1995 workforce study conducted by RAND estimated a large current surplus of eye care providers in the United States. Due to data limitations of the RAND study and the outdated optometric workforce information available, the American Optometric Association contracted with Abt Associates to conduct a study to project future workforce requirements for optometry. METHODS: We collected extensive data on both the supply (work hours, retirement rates, new entrants) and demand (patient encounters and associated time requirements) of optometrists. These data were collected from a survey using stratified random sampling of 1,100 practicing optometrists and were used to develop workforce projections for optometry through the year 2030. Projections were calculated using a forecasting tool that can be used to derive workforce and training requirements under a range of future scenarios. RESULTS: Workforce projections suggest an excess supply of optometrists is likely over the next 20 years. Over the next five years, approximately 550 optometrists are expected to retire each year, while more than 1,100 optometrists enter practice annually. Patient encounter volume is projected to increase steadily, but the effects of this increase are largely offset by an anticipated decrease in optometrist time requirements for routine eye examinations. DISCUSSION: To reduce the size of the anticipated excess supply, optometry may want to focus on ways that demand can be increased. One way to increase demand is through greater convergence between the actual demand for eye care services and the underlying public health need for eye care.
BACKGROUND: A 1995 workforce study conducted by RAND estimated a large current surplus of eye care providers in the United States. Due to data limitations of the RAND study and the outdated optometric workforce information available, the American Optometric Association contracted with Abt Associates to conduct a study to project future workforce requirements for optometry. METHODS: We collected extensive data on both the supply (work hours, retirement rates, new entrants) and demand (patient encounters and associated time requirements) of optometrists. These data were collected from a survey using stratified random sampling of 1,100 practicing optometrists and were used to develop workforce projections for optometry through the year 2030. Projections were calculated using a forecasting tool that can be used to derive workforce and training requirements under a range of future scenarios. RESULTS: Workforce projections suggest an excess supply of optometrists is likely over the next 20 years. Over the next five years, approximately 550 optometrists are expected to retire each year, while more than 1,100 optometrists enter practice annually. Patient encounter volume is projected to increase steadily, but the effects of this increase are largely offset by an anticipated decrease in optometrist time requirements for routine eye examinations. DISCUSSION: To reduce the size of the anticipated excess supply, optometry may want to focus on ways that demand can be increased. One way to increase demand is through greater convergence between the actual demand for eye care services and the underlying public health need for eye care.