Prediction of hepatitis C burden in Canada.

To assess the risk of hepatitis C in Canada and to predict the burden that this disease may pose to the Canadian society in the near future, expected numbers of persons at different stages of the disease currently and in the next decade were estimated by simulation using a published hepatitis C natural history model with no treatment effect being applied. Based on the estimate of 240,000 persons who are currently infected with the hepatitis C virus in Canada, the simulation analysis demonstrated that the number of hepatitis C cirrhosis cases would likely increase by 92% from 1998 to the year 2008. It was also projected that the number of liver failures and hepatocellular carcinomas related to hepatitis C would increase by 126% and 102%, respectively, in the next decade. The number of liver-related deaths associated with hepatitis C is expected to increase by 126% in 10 years. The medical and social care systems in Canada may not be ready to support these large increases. These results highlight the importance of both the control of disease progression of hepatitis C virus-infected persons and the primary prevention of hepatitis C infections in Canada.