Predictors related to the occurrence of a measles epidemic in the city of São Paulo in 1997.

A matched case-control study was performed to identify risk factors for measles during an epidemic that occurred in 1997 in the city of São Paulo, in the Brazilian state of the same name. Measles cases from the city of São Paulo from 1 January 1997 to 15 August 1997 were included in the study. The criteria for case definition were age below 30 years, having received no measles vaccine 5-21 days before the onset of rash, and laboratory confirmation by IgM antibodies detection. From a bank of confirmed measles cases, 130 cases for each of five age ranges (under 1 year, 1-5 years, 6-20 years, 21-24 years, and 25-29 years) were picked at random according to a systematic criterion proportional to the number of cases in seven areas of the city. Data were collected through a home survey, and for each measles case studied two controls matched by age and place of residence were selected. The matched conditional logistic regression analysis for the potential risk factors from the univariate analysis showed that the best predictors for acquiring measles during the epidemic were: lack of measles vaccination, previous contact with a measles-like disease at home or on the job, having been born either outside the state of São Paulo or in a rural area, being employed, and spending time in a semiclosed institution, such as a nursery, day care center, or school. The risk factors were not homogeneous for the different age groups. The data in the present survey suggest that, in addition to lack of vaccination, other risk factors should be considered when planning a measles vaccination strategy for a developing country.