Predictive inference, causal reasoning, and model assessment in nonparametric Bayesian analysis: a case study.

This paper continues our earlier analysis of a data set on acute ear infections in small children, presented in Andreev and Arjas (1998). The main goal here is to provide a method, based on the use of predictive distributions, for assessing the possible causal influence which the type of day care will have on the incidence of ear infections. A closely related technique is used for the assessment of the nonparametric Bayesian intensity model applied in the paper. Two graphical methods, supported by formal tests, are suggested for this purpose.