E A Newton1, J M Kuder. 1. Biometrics Unit of Cornell University, Cornell University, Ithaca, New York 14853-4401, USA.
Abstract
BACKGROUND: Mathematical modeling of herpes simplex virus type 2 transmission can provide insight into the behavior of the epidemic and the effects of control measures. GOAL: To examine parameter sensitivity and assess control strategies. STUDY DESIGN: The model simulates transmission in a young, sexually active, nonmonogamous population. The population is divided into compartments representing disease status (susceptible, exposed, primary infectious, asymptomatic, recurrent, vaccinated), and flows between compartments are described by differential equations. RESULTS: With a base set of parameter values, the basic reproduction rate (R0) is 1.79, indicating that ultimate prevalence in this population will be 44%. The course of the epidemic is most sensitive to changes in behavioral parameters (time nonmonogamous and partner-change rate) and to the probability of transmission during the asymptomatic stage. CONCLUSION: In the absence of behavior change, efforts to control the epidemic must focus on vaccine development and prevention of transmission during both symptomatic and asymptomatic phases.
BACKGROUND: Mathematical modeling of herpes simplex virus type 2 transmission can provide insight into the behavior of the epidemic and the effects of control measures. GOAL: To examine parameter sensitivity and assess control strategies. STUDY DESIGN: The model simulates transmission in a young, sexually active, nonmonogamous population. The population is divided into compartments representing disease status (susceptible, exposed, primary infectious, asymptomatic, recurrent, vaccinated), and flows between compartments are described by differential equations. RESULTS: With a base set of parameter values, the basic reproduction rate (R0) is 1.79, indicating that ultimate prevalence in this population will be 44%. The course of the epidemic is most sensitive to changes in behavioral parameters (time nonmonogamous and partner-change rate) and to the probability of transmission during the asymptomatic stage. CONCLUSION: In the absence of behavior change, efforts to control the epidemic must focus on vaccine development and prevention of transmission during both symptomatic and asymptomatic phases.
Authors: Ian H Spicknall; Katharine J Looker; Sami L Gottlieb; Harrell W Chesson; Joshua T Schiffer; Jocelyn Elmes; Marie-Claude Boily Journal: Vaccine Date: 2018-04-04 Impact factor: 3.641