Factors prior to dry period associated with high and low levels of cow milk somatic cell counts in next lactation.

Data from a randomized controlled field study of selective dry cow therapy were used in which 686 cows had been allocated to 2 control groups (sampling only or placebo) or 2 therapy groups. Possible factors from previous lactation were assessed in determining their association with the probability of 'failure', designated as a cow milk somatic cell count (CMSCC) of greater than 399,000 per ml in geometric mean of several measurements during subsequent lactation. Success cows were those with a CMSCC of less than 200,000 per ml. For our analyses, this targeted 187 success cows and 186 failure cows. Therapy was given as a total dose of 400,000 IU penicillin and 100 mg neomycin per infected quarter as dry cow preparation once, or as a lactation formula with a total dose of 1.2 million IU penicillin and 1,200 mg dihydrostreptomycin per infected quarter during a 1-week period. Significant factors in the predictive model for success included therapy, low level of CMSCC (geometric mean of the 3 last tests) in previous lactation, low level of CMSCC (weighted by daily milk yield mean) in the herd, young cows, and not having had a case of treatment for chronic clinical mastitis. Additional information on the probability of failure in treated and untreated cows can be predicted by number of quarters infected with Staphylococcus aureus approximately 1.5 months before drying off. The models derived are considered for use as tools in selective treatment and culling decisions.