BACKGROUND: Despite growing international pressure to provide HIV-1 treatment to less-developed countries, potential demographic and epidemiological impacts have yet to be characterised. We modelled the future impact of antiretroviral use in South Africa from 2000 to 2005. METHODS: We produced a population projection model that assumed zero antiretroviral use to estimate the future demographic impacts of the HIV-1 epidemic. We also constructed four antiretroviral-adjusted scenarios to estimate the potential effect of antiretroviral use. We modelled total drug cost, cost per life-year gained, and the proportion of per-person health-care expenditure required to finance antiretroviral treatment in each scenario. FINDINGS: With no antiretroviral use between 2000 and 2005, there will be about 276,000 cumulative HIV-1-positive births, 2,302,000 cumulative new AIDS cases, and the life expectancy at birth will be 46.6 years by 2005. By contrast, 110,000 HIV-1-positive births could be prevented by short-course antiretroviral prophylaxis, as well as a decline of up to 1 year of life expectancy. The direct drug costs of universal coverage for this intervention would be US$54 million--less than 0.001% of the per-person health-care expenditure. In comparison, triple-combination treatment for 25% of the HIV-1-positive population could prevent a 3.1-year decline in life expectancy and more than 430,000 incident AIDS cases. The drug costs of this intervention would, however, be more than $19 billion at present prices, and would require 12.5% of the country's per-person health-care expenditure. INTERPRETATION: Although there are barriers to widespread HIV-1 treatment, limited use of antiretrovirals could have an immediate and substantial impact on South Africa's AIDS epidemic.
BACKGROUND: Despite growing international pressure to provide HIV-1 treatment to less-developed countries, potential demographic and epidemiological impacts have yet to be characterised. We modelled the future impact of antiretroviral use in South Africa from 2000 to 2005. METHODS: We produced a population projection model that assumed zero antiretroviral use to estimate the future demographic impacts of the HIV-1 epidemic. We also constructed four antiretroviral-adjusted scenarios to estimate the potential effect of antiretroviral use. We modelled total drug cost, cost per life-year gained, and the proportion of per-person health-care expenditure required to finance antiretroviral treatment in each scenario. FINDINGS: With no antiretroviral use between 2000 and 2005, there will be about 276,000 cumulative HIV-1-positive births, 2,302,000 cumulative new AIDS cases, and the life expectancy at birth will be 46.6 years by 2005. By contrast, 110,000 HIV-1-positive births could be prevented by short-course antiretroviral prophylaxis, as well as a decline of up to 1 year of life expectancy. The direct drug costs of universal coverage for this intervention would be US$54 million--less than 0.001% of the per-person health-care expenditure. In comparison, triple-combination treatment for 25% of the HIV-1-positive population could prevent a 3.1-year decline in life expectancy and more than 430,000 incident AIDS cases. The drug costs of this intervention would, however, be more than $19 billion at present prices, and would require 12.5% of the country's per-person health-care expenditure. INTERPRETATION: Although there are barriers to widespread HIV-1 treatment, limited use of antiretrovirals could have an immediate and substantial impact on South Africa's AIDS epidemic.
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Keywords:
Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome; Africa; Africa South Of The Sahara; Demographic Factors; Demographic Impact; Developing Countries; Diseases; Drugs; English Speaking Africa; Epidemics; Hiv Infections; Models, Experimental; Population; Population Dynamics; Research Methodology; Research Report; South Africa; Southern Africa; Treatment; Viral Diseases
Authors: Julio S G Montaner; Viviane D Lima; Rolando Barrios; Benita Yip; Evan Wood; Thomas Kerr; Kate Shannon; P Richard Harrigan; Robert S Hogg; Patricia Daly; Perry Kendall Journal: Lancet Date: 2010-07-16 Impact factor: 79.321