Modeling ship transportation risk

This article presents results from the Commission of the European Communities (CEC) project "Safety of Shipping in Coastal Waters" (SAFECO). The project was performed by ten European partners during the period 1995-1998. The principal aim of the SAFECO project was to determine the influences that could increase the safety of shipping in coastal waters by analyzing the underlying factors contributing to the marine accident risk level. The work reported here focuses on the Marine Accident Risk Calculation System (MARCS) that was further developed during the SAFECO project. This paper presents the methods used by MARCS, as well as data and results from a "demonstration of concept" case study covering the North Sea area. The estimated accident frequencies (number of accidents per year) were compared with historical accident data, to demonstrate the validity of the modeling approach. Reasonable (within a factor of 5) to good (within a factor of 2) agreement between calculated accident frequencies and observed accident statistics was generally obtained. However, significant discrepancies were identified for some ship types and accident categories. The risk model has particular problems with estimating the accident frequency for drift grounding in general and powered grounding for ferries. It was concluded that these discrepancies are related to uncertainties in several areas, specifically in the risk model algorithms, the traffic data, the error and failure probability data, and the historical accident statistics.