Clinical scoring systems for determining the prognosis of gastrointestinal bleeding.

The prognosis of GI bleeding depends upon many factors. Patients should be evaluated carefully for risk factors. To avoid complications from GI bleeding, triage should be performed promptly after patient presentation. The history and physical examination should emphasize analysis of risk factors for severe GI bleeding and mortality. Factors that increase the morbidity and mortality include: age greater than 60 years; underlying comorbidity such as pulmonary diseases, liver diseases, renal diseases, encephalopathy, or cancer; physiologic stress from major surgery, trauma, or sepsis; coexisting disease in three organ systems; low hematocrit; melena or hematochezia; and prolonged prothrombin time. Hospitalized patients who require more than five units of packed erythrocytes transfusion or who develop hypotension or hypovolemic shock are more likely to need surgery. Patients with a high APACHE II score, the presence of esophageal varices, active bleeding, or other endoscopic stigmata of recent hemorrhage are more likely to rebleed and undergo surgery. The proliferation of multivariable prognostic scales, as described herein, provides ample evidence that the goal of developing a single comprehensive multivariable scale to accurately assess severity of disease and to determine prognosis of GI bleeding is still not achieved. Yet significant progress has occurred in this field, leading to the hope of developing a universally applicable multivariable scale.