Detecting bottlenecks and selective sweeps from DNA sequence polymorphism.

A coalescence-based maximum-likelihood method is presented that aims to (i) detect diversity-reducing events in the recent history of a population and (ii) distinguish between demographic (e.g., bottlenecks) and selective causes (selective sweep) of a recent reduction of genetic variability. The former goal is achieved by taking account of the distortion in the shape of gene genealogies generated by diversity-reducing events: gene trees tend to be more star-like than under the standard coalescent. The latter issue is addressed by comparing patterns between loci: demographic events apply to the whole genome whereas selective events affect distinct regions of the genome to a varying extent. The maximum-likelihood approach allows one to estimate the time and strength of diversity-reducing events and to choose among competing hypotheses. An application to sequence data from an African population of Drosophila melanogaster shows that the bottleneck hypothesis is unlikely and that one or several selective sweeps probably occurred in the recent history of this population.