Priority assessment of toxic substances in life cycle assessment. Part II: assessing parameter uncertainty and human variability in the calculation of toxicity potentials.

Toxicity potentials are standard values used in life cycle assessment (LCA) to enable a comparison of toxic impacts between substances. This paper presents the results of an uncertainty assessment of toxicity potentials that were calculated with the global nested multi-media fate, exposure and effects model USES-LCA. The variance in toxicity potentials resulting from input parameter uncertainties and human variability was quantified by means of Monte Carlo analysis with Latin Hypercube sampling (LHS). For Atrazine, 2,3,7,8-TCDD and Lead, variation, expressed by the ratio of the 97.5%-ile and the 2.5%-ile, ranges from about 1.5 to 6 orders of magnitude. The major part of this variation originates from a limited set of substance-specific input parameters, i.e. parameters that describe transport mechanisms, substance degradation, indirect exposure routes and no-effect concentrations. Considerable correlations were found between the toxicity potentials of one substance, in particular within one impact category. The uncertainties and correlations reported in the present study may have a significant impact on the outcome of LCA case studies.