Molecular markers in blood as surrogate prognostic indicators of melanoma recurrence.

Improvement is needed in the ability to evaluate the prognosis of melanoma patients who are clinically disease-free but likely to develop recurrent metastatic disease. The detection of circulating melanoma cells in blood is a potential surrogate marker of subclinical residual disease. We assessed the prognostic clinical utility of a multimarker melanoma reverse transcriptase-PCR (RT-PCR) assay using blood of 46 patients who were clinically disease-free. All patients were followed up for more than 4 years for disease recurrence. There was a significant correlation between number of RT-PCR markers present in blood and American Joint Committee on Cancer stage (P = 0.009). The number of RT-PCR markers detected in blood was an independent prediction factor of disease recurrence in a Cox proportional hazard model (P = 0.02). A risk factor model using American Joint Committee on Cancer stage and number of positive RT-PCR markers significantly predicted disease recurrence in 2, 3, and 4 years of follow-up. These studies demonstrate that molecular detection of circulating melanoma cells may be of significant prognostic value in determining early disease recurrence and may be useful for stratifying patients for adjuvant therapy.