Validation of predictive models describing the growth of Listeria monocytogenes.

In this study, predictions for growth rate of Listeria on food products were evaluated by both general applicable models and specific growth models. Literature values, obtained from a large number of publications, for growth rates in/on a variety of foods were compared by graphical and mathematical analysis with predictions given by various models. Apart for the great advantage of being generally applicable, the general models performed best. However, only small differences between the various models were observed. Model predictions were accurate within a factor of about two to four, depending on the type of product. The predictions should therefore not be considered as absolute; it is important to understand the limitations of the performance of models. All results and all assumptions should be criticised, but in many cases the accuracy will be sufficient to use these types of models as a tool in management decisions.