Family risk score of coronary heart disease (CHD) as a predictor of CHD: the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) study and the NHLBI family heart study.

Family history of coronary heart disease (CHD) has been found to be a risk factor for CHD in numerous studies. Few studies have addressed whether a quantitative measure of family history of CHD (family risk score, FRS) predicts CHD in African Americans. This study assessed the association between FRS and incident CHD of participants, and the variation of the association by gender and race. Participants in the study were a biracial population-based cohort with 3,958 African Americans and 10,580 Whites aged 45-64 years old in the ARIC baseline survey (1987-1989). They were randomly selected from four U. S. communities. During follow-up (1987-1993), 352 participants experienced the onset of CHD. Incidence density of CHD (per 1,000 person-years) was 7.8 and 3.6 among African-American men (AAM) and women (AAW), and 7.2 and 2.2 among White men (WM) and women (WW). The hazard rate ratio (HRR) of CHD associated with one standard deviation increase of FRS was 1.52 in AAW, 1.46 in AAM, 1.41 in WW, and 1.68 in WM. The HRRs decreased 4.6% in AAW, 1.4% in WW, 5.7% in AAM, and 3.0% in WM, but increased 2.1% in AAM after adjustment for selected covariates. FRS predicts incident CHD in African Americans and Whites, men and women. The relation of FRS to incident CHD can be only partially explained by the selected risk factors in the biological causal pathways: IMT, T-G, LDL, HDL, Lp(a), fibrinogen and hypertension. No significant difference by race has been found in this study. Copyright 2000 Wiley-Liss, Inc.