A model to estimate the probability of hepatitis B- and Haemophilus influenzae type b-vaccine uptake into national vaccination programs.

Most countries have been slow to adopt new vaccines into national vaccination schedules, despite recommendations from global multi-lateral agencies. Characteristics of countries that have adopted hepatitis B (HB) vaccine were analysed and used to formulate a logistic regression model. The model was applied to country-specific data to predict HB and Haemophilus influenzae type b (Hib) vaccine uptake. The greatest predictors of HB uptake were coverage rates of other vaccines, vaccine cost relative to the economy, and perceived disease burden. The logistic regression model's probability estimate of vaccine uptake agreed well with observed data for HB and Hib, (c-statistic 85 and 82%, respectively). Application of this model to other antigens may aid in predicting potential national markets to better plan new vaccine supply and demand.