Predicting the 2 1/2-year outcome of dysthymic disorder: the roles of childhood adversity and family history of psychopathology.

Follow-up studies of dysthymic disorder (DD) indicate that demographic and clinical variables are not strong predictors of its outcome. The present study extended this literature by examining the relationship between the early home environment and family history of psychopathology and outcome in DD. Eighty-six outpatients with DD were followed up over a 30-month period using structured clinical interviews. A number of measures of childhood adversity and familial psychopathology assessed at baseline predicted outcome, even after controlling for baseline severity and clinical variables. The best predictors included a history of sexual abuse, quality of the patient's relationship with both parents, and higher familial loadings for drug abuse and Cluster A personality disorders. These findings indicated that childhood adversity and familial psychopathology have greater predictive utility for DD than for demographic and clinical variables.