A simulation spatial model of the spread of foot-and-mouth disease through the primary movement of milk.

A computer model was constructed to mimic the 1967-8 foot-and-mouth epizootic in Shropshire and Cheshire, but the daily spatial distribution of outbreaks was randomized. This pattern of outbreaks was then examined to determine what percentage of outbreaks would fulfil and arbitrary set of criteria for milk-lorry-borne disease, or the primary movement of milk. Some 21% of herds visited subsequent to a 'source farm' were affected, as were 4% of herds visited after any infected herd. The relevance of these results to the true risk of disease through the primary movement of milk off affected farms is discussed.