Serum bone alkaline phosphatase and calcaneus bone density predict fractures: a prospective study.

The aim of this study was to assess the ability of serum bone-specific alkaline phosphatase (bone ALP), creatinine-corrected urinary collagen crosslinks (CTx) and calcaneus bone mineral density (BMD) to identify postmenopausal women who have an increased risk of osteoporotic fractures. Calcaneus BMD and biochemical markers of bone turnover (serum bone ALP and urinary CTx) were measured in 512 community-dwelling postmenopausal women (mean age at baseline 69 years) participating in the Hawaii Osteoporosis Study. New spine and nonspine fractures subsequent to the BMD and biochemical bone markers measurements were recorded over an average of 2.7 years. Lateral spinal radiographs were used to identify spine fractures. Nonspine fractures were identified by self-report at the time of each examination. During the 2.7-year follow-up, at least one osteoporotic fracture occurred in 55 (10.7%) of the 512 women. Mean baseline serum bone ALP and urinary CTx were significantly higher among women who experienced an osteoporotic fracture compared with those women who did not fracture. In separate age-adjusted logistic regression models, serum bone ALP, urinary CTx and calcaneus BMD were each significantly associated with new fractures (odds ratios of 1.53, 1.54 and 1.61 per SD, respectively). Multiple variable logistic regression analysis identified BMD and serum bone ALP as significant predictors of fracture (p = 0.002 and 0.017, respectively). The results from this investigation indicate that increased bone turnover is significantly associated with an increased risk of osteoporotic fracture in postmenopausal women. This association is similar in magnitude and independent of that observed for BMD.