Probabilistic modeling of Saccharomyces cerevisiae inhibition under the effects of water activity, pH, and potassium sorbate concentration.

Probabilistic microbial modeling using logistic regression was used to predict the boundary between growth and no growth of Saccharomyces cerevisiae at selected incubation periods (50 and 350 h) in the presence of growth-controlling factors such as water activity (a(w); 0.97, 0.95, and 0.93), pH (6.0, 5.0, 4.0, and 3.0), and potassium sorbate (0, 50, 100, 200, 500, and 1,000 ppm). The proposed model predicts the probability of growth under a set of conditions and calculates critical values of a(w), pH, and potassium sorbate concentration needed to inhibit yeast growth for different probabilities. The reduction of pH increased the number of combinations of a(w) and potassium sorbate concentration with probabilities to inhibit yeast growth higher than 0.95. With a probability of growth of 0.05 and using the logistic models, the critical pH values were higher for 50 h of incubation than those required for 350 h. With lower a(w) values and increasing potassium sorbate concentration the critical pH values increased. Logistic regression is a useful tool to evaluate the effects of the combined factors on microbial growth.